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The Graves Financial Advisory Group

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CIBC Private Wealth

October 07, 2025

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Morning Market Brief

 

Canadian consumer confidence fell for a second straight week as trade tensions with the US linger, hurting several key sectors of Canada’s economy. Fears have been growing that labour market weakness could drag down confidence and hinder consumer spending, which would hurt Canada’s overall economic growth. For now, however, Canadian households and the economy have demonstrated their resiliency, but the outlook is still unclear.

  • The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index fell to 50.5 in the week ended October 3 from 50.8 in the previous week. This marked the lowest reading since May 2025.
  • Compared to the previous week, fewer Canadians believe Canada’s economy will be stronger in the next six months. The labour market is also worrying consumers. Confidence in job security dropped over the week.
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump today. The topics of the meeting will include trade and security. The PM will try to bring some relief to sectors hard hit by tariffs, including aluminum, steel and lumber.
  • South of the border, the US government shutdown extended into a sixth day yesterday. Both sides in Congress continue to negotiate on a new spending package but have yet to reach an agreement.
  • The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced it would be raising oil production in November by 137,000 barrels of oil per day. Markets were worried there would be a larger increase, adding to oversupply concerns, which pushed prices down over the past two weeks.

Canada’s economy has shown its relative strength despite lower consumer and business confidence. Canada might not see outsized growth this year, but data is pointing to the economy avoiding a recession. Business leaders and politicians are hoping PM Carney can negotiate some relief for sectors hurt by tariffs during his meeting with President Trump today.

If you would like to discuss this economic and market update or have questions about your finances and investments, please feel free to contact me anytime.

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CIBC Private Wealth” consists of services provided by CIBC and certain of its subsidiaries through CIBC Private Banking; CIBC Private Investment Counsel, a division of CIBC Asset Management Inc. (“CAM”); CIBC Trust Corporation; and CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc. (“WMI”). CIBC Private Banking provides solutions from CIBC Investor Services Inc. (“ISI”), CAM and credit products. CIBC Private Wealth services are available to qualified individuals. Insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services Inc. In Quebec, insurance services are only available through CIBC Wood Gundy Financial Services (Quebec) Inc.


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